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4.2 — An Economic Model of Precaution

ECON 315 • Economics of the Law • Spring 2021

Ryan Safner
Assistant Professor of Economics
safner@hood.edu
ryansafner/lawS21
lawS21.classes.ryansafner.com

Precaution: An Economic Model

Precaution

  • As usual, our main concern is with the incentives these various liability rules create

  • For torts, focus on parties' incentive to invest in (costly) precaution to avoid accidents

    • Driving/bicyling carefully, installing seatbelts, airbags, wearing helmets, etc.
    • Inspecting products carefully, quality control, independent audits, mandatory work breaks
    • All of these things are costly to parties, so there must be some efficient level

Precaution

  • Actions by both injurer and victim impact the number of accidents
  • Speed like hell, drive drunk, texting
  • Bicycle in the dark wearing black, no helmet
  • Manufacture cheap, shoddy product quickly
  • Drive slowly and soberly
  • Bicycle wearing helmet and reflectors
  • Manufacture slow, quality controlled & inspected product

Precaution

  • Actions by both injurer and victim impact the number of accidents
  • Speed like hell, drive drunk, texting
  • Bicycle in the dark wearing black, no helmet
  • Manufacture cheap, shoddy product quickly
  • Drive slowly and soberly
  • Bicycle wearing helmet and reflectors
  • Manufacture slow, quality controlled & inspected product

  • Precaution: any activity either party can do to reduce probability of an accident (or severity of damage)

  • How much precaution is efficient?

  • How do we design the law to get this amount?

A Simple Economic Model of Accidents

  • Our main example was a car hitting a bicyclist, in real life:

    • Driver probably has insurance
    • Some damage to bicycle and to driver’s car
    • Driver and bicyclist may not even know what the law is
  • We will simplify a lot by assuming:

    • Only one party is harmed
    • Parties know the law
    • Parties don’t have any insurance (for now)
    • Focus only on one party’s precaution at a time

A Unilateral Care Model

  • Unilateral harm (just one victim)

  • Precaution: costly actions that make accident less likely

    • Could be taken by either victim or injurer
    • We'll consider both, but one at a time

A Unilateral Care Model: Definitions/Notation

  • x: amount of precaution taken

  • w: cost of each “unit” or precaution

    • total cost of precaution is wx
  • p(x): probability of an accident, given level of x

    • p(x)x<0
  • A: cost of accident (to victim)

    • expected cost of accidents is p(x)A
  • When we examine injurer we will use x, when we examine victim we will use y

    • Your textbook uses xi and xv

A Unilateral Care Model

  • Cost of precaution, wx

A Unilateral Care Model

  • Cost of precaution, wx

  • Cost of accidents, p(x)A

A Unilateral Care Model

  • Cost of precaution, wx

  • Cost of accidents, p(x)A

  • Total Social Cost p(x)A+wx

A Unilateral Care Model

  • Cost of precaution, wx

  • Cost of accidents, p(x)A

  • Total Social Cost p(x)A+wx

  • Efficient level of precaution:

minx colorbluep(x)A+wx

A Unilateral Care Model

  • Cost of precaution, wx

  • Cost of accidents, p(x)A

  • Total Social Cost p(x)A+wx

  • Efficient level of precaution:

minxp(x)A+wx

  • Optimum x:

w=p(x)AMSC of precaution=MSB of precaution

A Unilateral Care Model

  • The efficient level of precaution, x minimizes total social cost
    • Balances the tradeoff between the benefit of reduced accident likelihood and the cost of increased precaution

A Unilateral Care Model: Technical Note

  • We are thinking of bilateral precaution, just “one party at a time”; again:

    • x represent level of precaution by injurer
    • y represent level of precaution by victim
  • Really, the social problem between both parties: minx,yp(x,y)Awxwy

A Unilateral Care Model: Technical Note

  • “Hold fixed” one party’s solution and consider the other, e.g.

minxp(x,y)Awxwy given y

which has same solution as minxp(x)Awx

  • Results will generally be efficient given what the other party is doing

Effect of Liability Rules on Precaution

  • We know the efficient level of precaution is x, which minimizes total social cost

  • Now let’s consider the effect of different liability rules have on the chosen amount of precaution

No Liability

No Liability

  • Imagine a world of no liability (NL)

  • Injurer pays nothing for accidents

    • Bears the cost of his precaution
    • But no benefit (of avoided damages)
    • Has no incentive to take any precaution
  • Victim bears cost of any accidents, plus cost of her precaution taken

    • Victim precaution imposes no externality on Injurer
    • Victim will invest in efficient amount of precaution y

No Liability

  • Injurer's private costs: wx minxwxxNL=0

No Liability

  • Injurer's private costs: wx minxwxxNL=0

  • Victim's private costs: p(y)A+wy minyp(y)A+wyyNL=y

    • chooses efficient precaution
  • Rule of no liability leads to:

    • efficient precaution by Victims
    • no precaution by Injurers

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution
No liability Zero Efficient

Determining Accidents

  • Precaution isn't the only thing that affects the number of accidents

    • Precautions are extra actions that make our activity less dangerous
  • Also the amount of activities we do affects the number of accidents

    • I decide how often to drive
    • You decide how often to bike
  • Liability rules also create incentives for activity levels

Determining Accidents: No Liability

  • With no liability, I am not liable if I hit you

    • I don't consider cost of accident when I decide how fast to drive
    • nor when I decide how much to drive
    • So I drive too recklessly and too often
  • My driving imposes a negative externality on others

    • With no liability, Injurer's activity level is inefficiently high

Determining Accidents: No Liability

  • With no liability, you bear the full cost of an accident
    • More activity by victim (bicycling) leads to more accidents
    • You weigh cost of accidents when deciding how carefully to ride, and how much to ride
    • Your private cost equals the social cost
    • You take the efficient level of precaution, and efficient level of activity

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient

Strict Liability

Strict Liability

  • Imagine a world of strict liability (SL) with perfect compensation

    • D=A damages equal to the cost of the accident
  • Injurer pays for any accidents he causes

    • Bears the full cost of accidents plus his precautions taken
    • Receives benefit (of avoided damages)
    • Internalizes externality his actions cause, chooses the efficient level of precaution
  • Victim is fully insured

    • Has no incentive to invest in any precaution

Strict Liability

  • Injurer's private costs: p(x)A+wx minxp(x)A+wxxSL=x
    • chooses efficient precaution

Strict Liability

  • Injurer's private costs: p(x)A+wx minxp(x)A+wxxSL=x

    • chooses efficient precaution
  • Victim's private costs: wy minywyySL=0

  • Rule of strict liability leads to:

    • efficient precaution by Injurers
    • no precaution by Victims

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution
No liability Zero Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero

Strict Liability: Activity Levels

  • Under strict liability, injurer internalizes cost of accidents

    • Weighs benefit from driving against cost of accidents
    • Takes efficient activity level
  • Under strict liability, victim does not bear cost of accidents

    • Ignores cost of accidents when deciding how much to bicycle
    • Takes inefficiently high activity level
  • Strict liability leads to efficient level of injurer activity, inefficiently high level of victim activity

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

  • So for both precaution & activity level:

  • No liability leads to inefficient behavior by injurer, efficient behavior by victim

  • Strict liability leads to efficient behavior by injurer, inefficient behavior by victim

  • Like the paradox of compensation from contract law!

    • One rule sets multiple incentives...we can't get them all right
    • ...or can we? Tort law has this One Weird TrickTM

Negligence

Negligence

  • Negligence rule: Injurer is only liable if he breached his duty of due care

    • Put alternatively, liable only if accident is “his fault”
  • Within our model:

    • Legal standard of care xl
    • Injurer owes damages if x<xl
    • If x<xlD=A
    • If xxlD=0

Negligence

  • Private cost to injurer is:

Negligence

  • Private cost to injurer is: {p(x)A+wxif x<xl

Negligence

  • Private cost to injurer is: {p(x)A+wxif x<xlwxif xxl

Negligence

  • Private cost to injurer is: {p(x)A+wxif x<xlwxif xxl

  • If standard of care xl is set to x, injurer minimizes private cost by taking efficient caution

Negligence: Injurer Precaution

  • What about victim's incentives?

    • We saw injurer will exercise due care and not be liable!
    • Victim now bears cost of any accidents! (residual risk)
  • Private cost to victim is: p(y)A+wy

    • Victim chooses y, efficient precaution too!

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
Negligence Efficient Efficient

Assuming standard of care is set at the efficient level (xl=x)

A Family of Negligence Rules

Other Negligence Rules

  • The rule we just considered is “simple” negligence

    • Only consider injurer's actions in determining liability
  • But in deciding whether injurer should be liable, we could also consider whether the victim was negligent

Contributory Negligence: Butterfield v. Forrester

  • Butterfield v. Forrester, 11 East. 60, 103 Eng. Rep. 926 (K.B. 1809)

  • Forrester (Defendent) placed a pole in road next to his house while making repairs

  • Butterfield (Plaintiff) was riding at high speed at night, hit the pole, fell off his horse, sued for damages

  • Witness said that if Forrester had not been riding fast, would have seen the pole

  • Jury ruled Plaintiff should not be able to collect damages from Plaintiff due to their own contributory negligence

“One person being in fault will not dispense with another’s using ordinary care for himself.”

Injurer & Victim Negligence

  • Let’s compare the whole family of negligence rules

  • Injurer is negligent/at fault when they fail to take due care, x<x

  • Victim is negligent/at fault when they fail to take due care, y<y

  • Now let’s consider who is liable for the accident under various negligence rules

Assuming standards of care are set at the efficient levels xl=x and yl=y

Simple Negligence

  • Simple negligence:

  • Injurer is liable if they do not take due care x<x

  • Injurer is not liable if they do take due care xx

    • Victim cannot collect damages for any accident

Negligence With a Defense of Contributory Negligence

  • Negligence with a defense of Contributory Negligence:

  • Injurer is liable if they do not take due care x<x

  • Injurer is not liable if Victim does not take due care y<y

Comparative Negligence

  • Comparative Negligence: if both parties are negligent, they share the cost of the accident (possibly proportionately)
    • e.g. if accident cause was 70% injurer’s fault, 30% victim’s fault, injurer pays for 70% of damages

Strict liability with Contributory Negligence

  • Strict liability with defense of Contributory Negligence:

  • Injurer is liable (regardless of their level of precaution x) unless Victim does not take due care y<y

Family of Negligence Rules

Family of Negligence Rules

  • These rules differ only in distribution of income

  • Any of these rules (with efficient standard of care) incentivize efficient precaution by both parties! (x,y)

Comparing Negligence Rules, A Discrete Example of Bilateral Caution

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Let's compare with a discrete example

  • Each party Injurer and Victim can either take precaution or not

    • Precaution costs each party $20
    • Each accident costs $1,000 in harm
  • Chance of accident is:

    • 10% if nobody takes precaution
    • 6% if one party takes precaution
    • 2% if both parties take precaution
  • Note: precaution is efficient for each party: costs $20; reduces expected damage by 0.04($1,000) = $40

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Consider rule of negligence with defense of contributory negligence

  • Injurer is liable if he failed to take precaution...unless blue victim failed too

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Consider rule of negligence with defense of contributory negligence

  • Injurer is liable if he failed to take precaution...unless blue victim failed too

  • Notice Victim's dominant strategy is Precaution

    • If Injurer not taking precaution, victim wants to avoid liability
    • If Injurer takes precaution, victim bears residual risk, wants to minimize accidents

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Consider rule of negligence with defense of contributory negligence

  • Injurer is liable if he failed to take precaution...unless blue victim failed too

  • Notice Victim's dominant strategy is Precaution

    • If Injurer not taking precaution, victim wants to avoid liability
    • If Injurer takes precaution, victim bears residual risk, wants to minimize accidents
  • For Injurer, best response to Victim's precaution is precaution

  • Nash Eq.: (Precaution, precaution), efficient!

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Consider rule of comparative negligence, cost of accident divided proportionately

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Consider rule of comparative negligence, cost of accident divided proportionately

  • Notice Victim's dominant strategy is Precaution

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Consider rule of comparative negligence, cost of accident divided proportionately

  • Notice Victim's dominant strategy is Precaution

  • For Injurer, best response to Victim's precaution is precaution

  • Nash Equilibrium: (Precaution, precaution) and is efficient!

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Consider rule of strict liability with defense of contributory negligence

  • Injurer is liable regardless of his precaution ... unless blue victim was negligent

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Consider rule of strict liability with defense of contributory negligence

  • Injurer is liable regardless of his precaution ... unless blue victim was negligent

  • Notice Victim's dominant strategy is Precaution

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Discrete Example of Bilateral Precaution

  • Consider rule of strict liability with defense of contributory negligence

  • Injurer is liable regardless of his precaution ... unless blue victim was negligent

  • Notice Victim's dominant strategy is Precaution

  • For Injurer, best response to Victim's precaution is precaution

  • Nash Equilibrium: (Precaution, precaution) and is efficient!

A: $1,000

w: $20 (each party)

p: 10% (neither), 6% (one careful), 2% (both)

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence Efficient Efficient
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient
Comparative Negligence Efficient Efficient
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient

Assuming all relevant standards of care are set at the efficient levels (xl=x)

Activity Levels under Negligence Rules

  • Simple negligence: injurer liable if he was negligent

  • Leads injurer to take efficient precaution, so injurer expects to not be liable for any accidents

  • So Injurer ignores cost of accidents when deciding on activity level

    • Drives carefully, but still drives too much
  • Victim bears residual risk

    • Bikes carefully, and bikes efficient amount

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient
Comparative Negligence Efficient Efficient
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient

Assuming all relevant standards of care are set at the efficient levels (xl=x)

Activity Levels under Negligence Rules

  • Contributory Negligence and Comparative negligence: efficient precaution by both parties

  • Leads injurer to take efficient precaution, so injurer expects to not be liable for any accidents

  • So Injurer ignores cost of accidents when deciding on activity level

    • Drives carefully, but still drives too much
  • Victim bears residual risk

    • Bikes carefully, and bikes efficient amount

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Comparative Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient

Assuming all relevant standards of care are set at the efficient levels (xl=x)

Activity Levels under Negligence Rules

  • Strict liability w/comparative negligence defense: if victim is not negligent, injurer is liable regardless of precaution

  • Leads both parties to take efficient precaution, so injurer is residual risk bearer, and is liable for any accidents

    • So injurer weighs cost of accidents against benefits, drives efficient amount
  • Victim, fully insured, ignores cost of accidents when deciding on activity level

    • Bikes carefully, but still bikes too much

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Comparative Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Efficient Too High

Assuming all relevant standards of care are set at the efficient levels (xl=x)

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Comparative Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Efficient Too High

Highlighted cases: party takes precaution only to AVOID liability precaution is efficient, but activity level is too high

Comparing Incentives Under Different Liability Rules

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Comparative Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Efficient Too High

Highlighted cases: party reduces accidents, since they bear the cost, so both precaution & activity level are both efficient

These Results Look Overwhelming

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Comparative Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Efficient Too High

These results look overwhelming, but really the result of four basic ideas

These Results Look Overwhelming

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Too High
Strict liability Zero Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence
Comparative Negligence
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence

1) If you don’t bear any of the cost of accidents, you have no incentive to prevent them

These Results Look Overwhelming

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence
Comparative Negligence
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence

2) If you do bear the cost of accidents, you’ll do whatever you can to prevent them

These Results Look Overwhelming

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence Efficient Too High
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Too High
Comparative Negligence Efficient Too High
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Too High

3) If you can avoid liability by exercising due care, you’ll do it, but then you won’t reduce activity

These Results Look Overwhelming

Rule Injurer Precaution Victim Precaution Injurer Activity Victim Activity
No liability Zero Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict liability Efficient Zero Efficient Too High
(“Simple”) Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Negligence w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Comparative Negligence Efficient Efficient Too High Efficient
Strict Liability w/Contributory Negligence Efficient Efficient Efficient Too High

4) If the other guy can duck liability with due care, you’re the residual risk bearer, and therefore you’ll take due care

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